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    • Forecasting dengue incidence in Dhaka, Bangladesh: A time series analysis. 

      Choudhury, Zamil MAH; Banu, Shahera; Islam, Amirul M (‎2008-12)‎
      This article attempts to model the monthly number of dengue fever (‎DF)‎ cases in Dhaka, Bangladesh,and forecast the dengue incidence using time series analysis. Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated MovingAverage (‎SARIMA)‎ models have been developed on the monthly data collected from January 2000 toOctober 2007 and validated using the data from September 2006 to October 2007. The results showed that the predicted values were consistent with the upturns and downturns of the observedseries. The SARIMA (‎1,0,0)‎(‎1,1,1)‎12 model has been found as the most ...