Cumulative estimates for the number of nets distributed per year are 35 million and rising up to 42 million by 2006. This adds up to an estimated 152 million nets for the period 2004-2006. However these projections are highly dependent on donor input, e.g. Global Fund support for new country proposals, on the future growth of commercial distribution, (net sales have steadily grown in Tanzania at a 20% rate since 1994, and the case could be similar in other countries). These estimates also suggest that institutional purchases, mainly through UNICEF, WHO, PSI, Netmark and the Global Fund, will still comprise the bulk of the net procurement, approximately 70% of the total, over the next few years.

On the other hand the manufacturing capacity, estimated from responses to a survey conducted in 2003,is between 25 and 30 million nets. It is not expected to increase without a significant increase in funding. It should be noted that the production capacity of companies where quality standards do not conform to WHO recommended specifications for netting materials is not taken into account.

Figures 2. Variation in delivery times for mosquito nets

Source: UNICEF Supply Division

Nevertheless there is still a gap, both in projected funding and in production capacity, to meet the Abuja Target in 2005, which requires approximately 45 million nets per year in 2004 and 2005. New funding allocated to increase ITN coverage will, therefore, stimulate net manufacturers to increase their capacity, with a probable price reduction, in response to the growing demand.