Much has been published about the effects of the aging population. For example it has been shown that medical expenses in France and Belgium are over three times greater for men aged 65 to 74 than for men aged 15 to 44. Expenses double for men over age 75 compared with the age group 65 to 75 (SANDIER, 1987). But the average annual effect of demographic change in Britain has been calculated as less than 0.3 per cent for the next 35 years (COSTAIN and WOLFSON, 1994). The Department of Health in the UK has also estimated the components of growth of the UK drugs bill. The demographic factor accounted for 0.3 per cent of the growth between 1982 and 1992 (Table 11).
In the past also, the effect has been far too small to account for more than a small part of the rising costs of health care in the developed world. The large and common feature throughout the world is the rising cost of new technology, particularly in the US.
TABLE 11. - Components of annual growth of U.K. drugs bill between 1982-1992 and 1991-1992
Components |
1982-1992 % |
1991-1992 % |
Pure Demography |
0.3 |
0.3 |
Scripts per capita (volume) |
2.7 |
4.3 |
Quantity per script |
1.1 |
2.8 |
Price of basket of existing drugs |
1.4 |
0.4 |
Product mix (new products) |
5.5 |
5.5 |
Source: United Kingdom Department of Health.