The consumption method uses data on drug consumption. The reliability of this method depends on a well-established and stable supply system with a relatively uninterrupted supply and full supply pipeline. Consumption data may or may not reflect rational prescribing and use of drugs. In this method, a list of anti-TB drugs is prepared using the most accurate inventory records of past consumption. Care should be taken that drug stock-outs and numbers of identified cases not treated are included in the consumption data. The following are the steps in quantifying anti-TB drugs using the consumption-based method:
1. Prepare a list of anti-TB drugs to be quantified.
2. Determine the period of time to be reviewed for consumption. If the procurement/order is to cover a 12-month period, consumption data for the past 12 months should be reviewed.
3. Enter consumption data for each drug, including total quantity used during the review period, number of days that each drug was out of stock in the review period, and the average lead time for the last several procurements.
4. Calculate the average monthly consumption which is the key variable in the quantification formula and should be as accurate as possible.
5. Calculate the safety/reserve/buffer stock needed for each drug.
6. Calculate the quantity of each drug required in the next purchasing period.
7. Adjust for expected changes in consumption pattern.
8. Adjust for losses.
9. Record the number of drugs currently in stock.
10. Record the number of drugs already on order but not yet received.
11. Compile decentralized quantifications i.e. at each facility or storage point.
12. Estimate costs for each drug and total costs.
13. Compare total costs with the budget and make adjustments.
Formula:
Average monthly consumption, adjusted for stock-outs (CA) = CT ÷ [RM - (DOS ÷ 30.4)]
Basic safety/reserve stock (BS) = CA x LT
Quantity to order (QO) = CA x (LT + PP) + SS - (S1 + SO)
Where |
CA = Average monthly consumption, adjusted for stock-outs. |
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CT = Total consumption during review period, in basic units e.g. tablets. |
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DOS = Number of days an item was out of stock during the review period. |
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LT = Average lead time in months. |
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PP = Procurement period (number of months to be covered by order). |
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QO = Quantity to order in basic units, before adjustment for losses or programme change. |
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RM = Review period in months (number of months of data reviewed for forecasting). |
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SO = Stock currently on order but not yet received, in basic units. |
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S1 = Stock currently in inventory, in basic units. |
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SS = Quantity needed for safety/reserve stock. |
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30.4 = Average number of days per month. |