Duration of short-lived cross-protective immunity against a clinical attack of dengue: A preliminary estimate.
提要It is believed that primary infection with a single serotype of dengue virus elicits short-lived cross-protective immunity against other heterologous serotypes; however, the duration of cross-protectionhas not been explicitly estimated using epidemiological data. To offer an empirical estimate of theduration, the present study re-analysed historical cohort data of multiple clinical attacks of dengueamong American soldiers in the Philippines from 1922–24. In the original study, the historical cohortof 299 cases with a first clinical attack of dengue were closely surveyed; 99 (33.1%) experienced asecond attack, while the remaining 200 returned to the United States without further attacks. The timeintervals from first to second attack among the 99 cases, and from first attack to departure to the United States among the 200 soldiers, were used for estimating the duration of cross-protective immunitybased on a simple mathematical model. Employing an exponential distribution or Kronecker’s deltafunction as the loss function of cross-protection against a second clinical attack, the mean duration ofcross-protective immunity since the first clinical attack was estimated as 6.90 (4.87, 11.83) days and7.52 (4.88, 16.38) days, respectively. The force of infection, which was jointly estimated with theduration of cross-protection, reasonably explained the other observed epidemiological information inthe data, supporting the finding of a short cross-protection period. Even though the estimates suggestedthat the first clinical attack most likely elicited cross-protective immunity, the length of cross-protectionlasted only 1–2 weeks, far shorter than previously believed.
Nishiura, Hiroshi. (2008). Duration of short-lived cross-protective immunity against a clinical attack of dengue: A preliminary estimate.. WHO Regional Office for South-East Asia.. http://www.who.int/iris/handle/10665/170468