BACKGROUND: Of the three million newborns that die each year, Uganda ranks fifth highest in neonatal mortality rates, with 43,000 neonatal deaths each year. Despite child survival and safe motherhood programmes towards reducing child mortality, insufficient attention has been given to this critical first month of life. There is urgent need to innovatively employ alternative solutions that take into account the intricate complexities of neonatal health and the health systems. In this paper, we set out to empirically contribute to understanding the causes of the stagnating neonatal mortality by applying a systems thinking approach to explore the dynamics arising from the neonatal health complexity and non-linearity and its interplay with health systems factors, using Uganda as a case study. METHODS: Literature reviews and interviews were conducted in two divisions of Kampala district with high neonatal mortality rates with mothers at antenatal clinics and at home, village health workers, community leaders, healthcare decision and policy makers, and frontline health workers from both public and private health facilities. Data analysis and brainstorming sessions were used to develop causal loop diagrams (CLDs) depicting the causes of neonatal mortality, which were validated by local and international stakeholders. RESULTS: We developed two CLDs for demand and supply side issues, depicting the range of factors associated with neonatal mortality such as maternal health, level of awareness of maternal and newborn health, and availability and quality of health services, among others. Further, the reinforcing and balancing feedback loops that resulted from this complexity were also examined. The potential high leverage points include special gender considerations to ensure that girls receive essential education, thereby increasing maternal literacy rates, improved socioeconomic status enabling mothers to keep healthy and utilise health services, improved supervision, and internal audits at the health facilities as well as addressing the gaps in resources (human, logistics, and drugs). CONCLUSIONS: Synthesis of theoretical concepts through CLDs facilitated our understanding and interpretation of the interactions and feedback loops that contributed to the stagnant neonatal mortality rates in Uganda, which is the first step towards discussing and exploring the potential strategies and their likely impact.

BACKGROUND: Governing immunization services in a way that achieves and maintains desired population coverage levels is complex as it involves interactions of multiple actors and contexts. In one of the Indian states, Kerala, after routine immunization had reached high coverage in the late 1990s, it started to decline in some of the districts. This paper describes an application of complex adaptive systems theory and methods to understand and explain the phenomena underlying unexpected changes in vaccination coverage. METHODS: We used qualitative methods to explore the factors underlying changes in vaccination coverage in two districts in Kerala, one with high and one with low coverage. Content analysis was guided by features inherent to complex adaptive systems such as phase transitions, feedback, path dependence, and self-organization. Causal loop diagrams were developed to depict the interactions among actors and critical events that influenced the changes in vaccination coverage. RESULTS: We identified various complex adaptive system phenomena that influenced the change in vaccination coverage levels in the two districts. Phase transition describes how initial acceptability to vaccination is replaced by a resistance in northern Kerala, which involved new actors; actors attempting to regain acceptability and others who countered it created several feedback loops. We also describe how the authorities have responded to declining immunization coverage and its impact on vaccine acceptability in the context of certain highly connected actors playing disproportionate influence over household vaccination decisions.Theoretical exposition of our findings reveals the important role of trust in health workers and institutions that shape the interactions of actors leading to complex adaptive system phenomena. CONCLUSIONS: As illustrated in this study, a complex adaptive system lens helps to uncover the 'real' drivers for change. This approach assists researchers and decision makers to systematically explore the driving forces and factors in each setting and develop appropriate and timely strategies to address them. The study calls for greater consideration of dynamics of vaccine acceptability while formulating immunization policies and program strategies. The analytical approaches adopted in this study are not only applicable to immunization or Kerala but to all complex interventions, health systems problems, and contexts.

The most recent reports on global trends in neonatal mortality continue to show alarmingly slow progress on improvements in neonatal mortality rates, with sub-Saharan Africa still lagging behind. This emphasised the urgent need to innovatively employ alternative solutions that take into account the intricate complexities of neonatal health and the health systems in which the various strategies operate.In our first paper, we empirically explored the causes of the stagnating neonatal mortality in Uganda using a dynamic synthesis methodology (DSM) approach. In this paper, we completed the last three stages of DSM, which involved the development of a quantitative (simulation) model, using STELLA modelling software. We used statistical data to populate the model. Through brainstorming sessions with stakeholders, iterations to test and validate the model were undertaken. The different strategies and policy interventions that could possibly lower neonatal mortality rates were tested using what-if analysis. Sensitivity analysis was used to determine the strategies that could have a great impact on neonatal mortality.We developed a neonatal health simulation model (NEOSIM) to explore potential interventions that could possibly improve neonatal health within a health system context. The model has four sectors, namely population, demand for services, health of the mothers and choices of clinical care. It tests the effects of various interventions validated by a number of Ugandan health practitioners, including health education campaigns, free delivery kits, motorcycle coupons, kangaroo mother care, improving neonatal resuscitation and labour management skills, and interventions to improve the mothers health, i.e. targeting malaria, anaemia and tetanus. Among the tested interventions, the package with the highest impact on reducing neonatal mortality rates was a combination of the free delivery kits in a setting where delivery services were free and motorcycle coupons to take women to hospital during emergencies.This study presents a System Dynamics model with a broad and integrated view of the neonatal health system facilitating a deeper understanding of its current state and constraints and how these can be mitigated. A tool with a user friendly interface presents the dynamic nature of the model using 'what-if' scenarios, thus enabling health practitioners to discuss the consequences or effects of various decisions. Key findings of the research show that proposed interventions and their impact can be tested through simulation experiments thereby generating policies and interventions with the highest impact for improved healthcare service delivery.

Systems Thinking (ST) has recently been promoted as an important approach to health systems strengthening. However, ST is not common practice, particularly in Low- and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs). This paper seeks to explore the barriers that may hinder its application in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) and possible strategies to mitigate them.A survey consisting of open-ended questions was conducted with a purposive sample of health policy-makers such as senior officials from the Ministry of Health (MoH), researchers, and other stakeholders such as civil society groups and professional associations from ten countries in the region. A total of 62 respondents participated in the study. Thematic analysis was conducted.There was strong recognition of the relevance and usefulness of ST to health systems policy-making and research, although misconceptions about what ST means were also identified. Experience with applying ST was very limited. Approaches to designing health policies in the EMR were perceived as reactive and fragmented (66%). Commonly perceived constraints to application of ST were: a perceived notion of its costliness combined with lack of the necessary funding to operationalize it (53%), competing political interests and lack of government accountability (50%), lack of awareness about relevance and value (47%), limited capacity to apply it (45%), and difficulty in coordinating and managing stakeholders (39%).While several strategies have been proposed to mitigate most of these constraints, they emphasized the importance of political endorsement and adoption of ST at the leadership level, together with building the necessary capacity to apply it and apply the learning in research and practice.

BACKGROUND: The health Millennium Development Goals (4, 5, 6) impose the same ambitious 2015 targets on every country. Few low-income countries are on track to reach them. Some authors have proposed country-specific targets as a more informative method by which countries can measure their progress against their potential. METHODS: This paper demonstrates a supplementary approach to assess individual country progress that complements the global goals by adjusting for socioeconomic resources and prior time trends. A minimum performance target adjusts for time and national GDP. Fast-track targets, based on best-performing countries' progress within regional and income groups, adjust for health and non-health sector factors known to affect maternal and child health. RESULTS: Measuring by the minimum performance target, 74% and 59% of low- and middle-income countries are on track for reducing child mortality and maternal mortality, respectively, compared with 69% and 22% using global MDGs. Only 20% and 7% of low- and middle-income countries are on track for the child and maternal mortality fast-track targets. CONCLUSIONS: Supplementary targets in maternal and child health, adjusted for each country's resources and policy performance can help countries know if they are truly underperforming relative to their potential. Adjusted targets can also flag countries that have surpassed their potential, and open opportunities for learning from success. FUNDING: Partnership for Maternal, Newborn & Child Health and the Alliance for Health Policy and Systems Research, as part of the Success Factors Study on reducing maternal and child mortality.

Information on the unit cost of inpatient and outpatient care is an essential element for costing, budgeting and economic-evaluation exercises. Many countries lack reliable estimates, however. WHO has recently undertaken an extensive effort to collect and collate data on the unit cost of hospitals and health centres from as many countries as possible; so far, data have been assembled from 49 countries, for various years during the period 1973-2000. The database covers a total of 2173 country-years of observations. Large gaps remain, however, particularly for developing countries. Although the long-term solution is that all countries perform their own costing studies, the question arises whether it is possible to predict unit costs for different countries in a standardized way for short-term use. The purpose of the work described in this paper, a modelling exercise, was to use the data collected across countries to predict unit costs in countries for which data are not yet available, with the appropriate uncertainty intervals.The model presented here forms part of a series of models used to estimate unit costs for the WHO-CHOICE project. The methods and the results of the model, however, may be used to predict a number of different types of country-specific unit costs, depending on the purpose of the exercise. They may be used, for instance, to estimate the costs per bed-day at different capacity levels; the "hotel" component of cost per bed-day; or unit costs net of particular components such as drugs.In addition to reporting estimates for selected countries, the paper shows that unit costs of hospitals vary within countries, sometimes by an order of magnitude. Basing cost-effectiveness studies or budgeting exercises on the results of a study of a single facility, or even a small group of facilities, is likely to be misleading.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the cost to the health system of obstetric complications due to female genital mutilation (FGM) in six African countries. METHODS: A multistate model depicted six cohorts of 100,000 15-year-old girls who survived until the age of 45 years. Cohort members were modelled to have various degrees of FGM, to undergo childbirth according to each country's mortality and fertility statistics, and to have medically attended deliveries at the frequency observed in the relevant country. The risk of obstetric complications was estimated based on a 2006 study of 28,393 women. The costs of each complication were estimated in purchasing power parity dollars (I$) for 2008 and discounted at 3%. The model also tracked life years lost owing to fatal obstetric haemorrhage. Multivariate sensitivity analysis was used to estimate the uncertainty around the findings. FINDINGS: The annual costs of FGM-related obstetric complications in the six African countries studied amounted to I$ 3.7 million and ranged from 0.1 to 1% of government spending on health for women aged 15-45 years. In the current population of 2.8 million 15-year-old women in the six African countries, a loss of 130,000 life years is expected owing to FGM's association with obstetric haemorrhage. This is equivalent to losing half a month from each lifespan. CONCLUSION: Beyond the immense psychological trauma it entails, FGM imposes large financial costs and loss of life. The cost of government efforts to prevent FGM will be offset by savings from preventing obstetric complications.

BACKGROUND: While the impact of task shifting on quality of care and clinical outcomes has been demonstrated in several studies, evidence on its impact on the health system as a whole is limited. This study has two main objectives. The first is to conceptualize the wider range of effects of task shifting through a systems thinking lens. The second is to explore these effects using task shifting for HIV in Burkina Faso as a case study. METHODS: We used a case study approach, using qualitative research methods. Data sources included document reviews, reviews of available data and records, as well as interviews with key informants and health workers. RESULTS: In addition to the traditional measures of impact of task shifting on health outcomes, our study identified 20 possible effects of the strategy on the system as a whole. Moreover, our analysis highlighted the importance of differentiating between two types of health systems effects. The first are effects inherent to the task shifting strategy itself, such as job satisfaction or better access to health services. The second are effects due to health system barriers, for example the unavailability of medicines and supplies, generating a series of effects on the various components of the health system, e.g., staff frustration.Among the health systems effects that we found are positive, mostly unintended, effects and synergies such as increased health workers' sense of responsibility and worthiness, increased satisfaction due to using the newly acquired skills in other non-HIV tasks, as well as improved patient-provider relationships. Among the negative unintended effects are staff frustration due to lack of medicines and supplies or lack of the necessary infrastructure to be able to perform the new tasks. CONCLUSION: Our analysis highlights the importance of adopting a systems thinking approach in designing, implementing and evaluating health policies to mitigate some of the design issues or system bottle-necks that may impede their successful implementation or risk to present an incomplete or misleading picture of their impact.

From 1990-2010, worldwide child mortality declined by 43%, and maternal mortality declined by 40%. This paper compares two sources of progress: improvements in societal coverage of health determinants versus improvements in the impact of health determinants as a result of technical change.This paper decomposes the progress made by 146 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) in lowering childhood and maternal mortality into one component due to better health determinants like literacy, income, and health coverage and a second component due to changes in the impact of these health determinants. Health determinants were selected from eight distinct health-impacting sectors. Health determinants were selected from eight distinct health-impacting sectors. Regression models are used to estimate impact size in 1990 and again in 2010. Changes in the levels of health determinants were measured using secondary data.The model shows that respectively 100% and 89% of the reductions in maternal and child mortality since 1990 were due to improvements in nationwide coverage of health determinants. The relative share of overall improvement attributable to any single determinant varies by country and by model specification. However, in aggregate, approximately 50% of the mortality reductions were due to improvements in the health sector, and the other 50% of the mortality reductions were due to gains outside the health sector.Overall, countries improved maternal and child health (MCH) from 1990 to 2010 mainly through improvements in the societal coverage of a broad array of health system, social, economic and environmental determinants of child health. These findings vindicate efforts by the global community to obtain such improvements, and align with the post-2015 development agenda that builds on the lessons from the MDGs and highlights the importance of promoting health and sustainable development in a more integrated manner across sectors.

In 2004, the ministerial summit in Mexico drew attention to the historic neglect of health policy and systems research (HPSR) and called for increased funding, investment in national institutional capacity for HPSR, and resources for selected priority research topics. On the basis of meeting discussions, published reports, and available data from research funders and organisations in low-income and middle-income countries, we discuss how HPSR has evolved since the summit in Mexico. Funding for HPSR, particularly in low-income countries, is mainly supported by international and bilateral organisations. Increased interest in health systems has translated into increased support for HPSR. However, small grants and lack of coordination between funders inhibit capacity development, and substantial gaps remain between institutional capacities of high-income and low-income countries. Lack of national capacity is judged to be the key constraint to the development of HPSR. Recommendations from the summit in Mexico remain pertinent, and momentum towards their achievement must be accelerated through the ministerial forum in Mali and beyond.

In May 2013, the WHO Member States requested the WHO to establish a Global Observatory on Health Research and Development (R&D), as part of a strategic work-plan to promote innovation, build capacity, improve access, and mobilize resources to address diseases that disproportionately affect the world's poorest countries.The rationale for establishing a Global Observatory on Health R&D is to provide a mechanism to monitor and analyse health R&D resource flows, product pipelines, and research outputs, aiming to contribute to the identification of gaps to inform priority-setting for new R&D investments to be operationalized through a new global financing and coordination mechanism for health R&D and utilized by all stakeholders informing health research policy decisions in countries, civil society, and the private sector.As one of the mechanisms to achieve the goals of the Global Observatory on Health R&D, the WHO is launching a Call for Papers to be published as a Thematic Series in Health Research Policy and Systems to contribute state-of-the-art knowledge and innovative approaches to analyse, interpret, and report on health R&D information. Further, to serve as a key resource to inform the future WHO-convened coordination mechanism, which will be utilized to generate evidence-informed priorities for new R&D investments to be financed through a proposed new global financing and coordination mechanism for health R&D.